Spot gold was consolidating in a narrow range on Thursday (May 17), with the US market hitting a low of $1,285.30 per ounce, hitting a low in the year, and the price of gold at 1290 was in a narrow range. The dollar continued to rise on Thursday, with the US dollar index hitting a high of 93.58; the stronger dollar continued to put a lot of pressure on gold. The number of jobless claims for the US in the week ending May 12 was 222,000, slightly higher than the previous value and expectations. It is still at a low level since December 1973, indicating a weakening of the labor market. The labor market is tightening, in line with economists' expectations, and wage growth will accelerate in the second half of this year. In May, the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index was 34.4, higher than the previous value and expectations; the US April Conference Board leading indicator monthly rate of 0.4%, higher than the previous value is in line with expectations.
In the peripheral market, the world stock market was mixed overnight. The United States pointed to a low opening when the market opened in New York, and then the price was mixed. On Thursday, the US oil hit a three-and-a-half-year high, stabilizing above $72/barrel, and Brent oil futures rose to $80/barrel. At the same time, the US dollar index continued to remain firm and remained stable at a five-week high. As of press time, the US dollar index rose by 0.08, or 0.08%, to 93.46. The Dow fell 0.09% to 24,747.05; the S&P 500 rose 2.79% to 2,725.25; the Nasdaq rose 0.11% to 7406.43. US oil rose 0.34% to 71.73 US dollars / barrel, and oil oil rose 1.19% to 80.22 US dollars / barrel.
According to the analysis, the unfavorable factor of gold is that the market sentiment is relatively optimistic and the risk sentiment is heavier. However, in terms of geopolitics, the upcoming storm is still visible above the horizon. Once these storms break out, the market will flee to safe-haven assets such as the gold and silver market. In the European market, Italy now has signs of leaving the EU, saying that if the EU does not reduce its financial debt, it will likely choose to leave the EU. This situation has increased the recent selling pressure of the euro, which in turn supports the dollar. In addition, the delicate relationship between the United States and North Korea, as well as the uncertainty of North Korea’s commitment to denuclearization, may trigger investor anxiety in the coming weeks. At present, the gold market needs some news events to support the rise, and history has confirmed that the market has never been calm. However, due to the imminent Fed rate hike, the continued rise of the US dollar and US debt is still a great clamp on gold. Some analysts said that the gold price is currently below the key psychological level of 1,300 US dollars / ounce, the gold bulls must wait until the end of the Fed's tightening cycle, will see a sharp rise in prices.
From a technical point of view, the gold trend continues to deteriorate, the price of gold has fallen below the main moving average, and the bears still have the advantage to maintain their potential. The next step will be to fall to the 1280 and 1270 points. On the upside, the 1300 has turned into a bully strong resistance, and the gold price has to regain its momentum and need to cross this threshold and return to the 200-day moving average, returning to the key support at $1316.48 per ounce.
Thursday's trend statement
International spot gold on Thursday (May 17) Asian market opened at 1290.60 US dollars / ounce in early trading, the price of gold rose slightly after the turntable, long and short, the trend is sluggish; European gold price to get rid of the downturn, bullish attack, recorded high intraday After the price of 1492.20 US dollars / ounce, it fell again, and the price of gold fluctuated downward. The US gold price rebounded after hitting an intraday low of $1,285.30 per ounce. The price of gold was slightly higher, and the bulls once again attacked. The rear turntable was completed and closed at $1,290.70 per ounce.
International spot gold Thursday (May 17) Asian market opened at 1290.60 US dollars / ounce in early trading, the lowest test of 1,283.30 US dollars / ounce, the highest rose to 1492.20 US dollars / ounce, and finally closed at 1129.70 US dollars / ounce, up 0.2 US dollars, gains 0.015%.
Fundamental positive factors:
1. The total number of new housing starts in the US announced on Wednesday (May 16) was 1.287 million, lower than the previous value of 131.9 and expected 131; the total number of US construction permits in April was 1.352 million, lower than the previous value of 137.9 Higher than expected 135. The commentary said that the total number of new housing starts in the United States fell sharply in April, and the total number of building permits fell, which meant that the housing market did not improve in the absence of land and skilled labor.
2. Data released on Friday (May 11th) showed that the monthly import price index of the US in April was 0.3%, higher than the previous value of 0% but lower than the expected 0.5%. The commentary said that the US import price index was lower than expected in April. The price of imported oil was offset by the decline in food prices due to the rise in imported oil prices; the price of imported oil rose by 1.6% in April, and the price of imported food fell for two consecutive months.
3. The US CPI monthly rate announced on Thursday (May 10) was 0.2%, higher than the previous value of -0.1% but lower than the expected 0.3%. The market expects the Fed will not aggressively raise interest rates due to inflation. Still lower than expected.
4. On Wednesday (May 9), the US April PPI index was up 0.1% from March, and the core PPI excluding food and energy rose 0.2%. Both figures were expected to be 0.2% due to the cargo and Service cost growth slowed, and US producer prices barely rose in April after a strong rise in the first quarter, which may ease concerns about the rapid increase in inflationary pressures.
Fundamental negative factors:
1. On Thursday (May 17), the number of people filing for unemployment benefits from the United States to the beginning of May 12 was 222,000, slightly higher than the previous value and expectations. It is still at a low level since December 1973, indicating The labor market is weaker, that is, the labor market is tightening.
2. The US Federal Reserve Index for the Federal Reserve of Philadelphia announced on Thursday (May 17) was 34.4, higher than the previous value and expectations. The leading index of the US Conference Board in April was 0.4%, which was higher than the previous value.
3. Another data released on Wednesday (May 9) is that the monthly industrial output rate of the United States in April was 0.7%, higher than the previous value of 0.5% and expected 0.6%; comments said that the monthly rate of industrial output in the United States rose in April. This adds uncertainty to the economic outlook.
4. The US retail sales rate for April, which was announced on Tuesday (May 15) as “terrorist dataâ€, was 0.3%, lower than the previous value of 0.6% but in line with expectations of 0.3%, and recorded a rise for two consecutive months. It shows that US consumer spending seems to be still on the right track, and the data performance in the first quarter has experienced a sharp slowdown.
Outlook outlook
1. Kitco's weekly gold survey released on Friday (May 11th) showed that both professionals and regular respondents are bullish on this week's gold. In the survey of Wall Street professionals, 19 people participated in the survey, 15 people, or 79% think that gold will rise this week, 2 people or 11% think that gold will fall this week, 2 or 11% I think gold will be consolidating. Market participants include gold traders, investment banks, futures traders and technical analysts. In the survey of ordinary investors, 2,491 people participated in the survey, 2207 people, or 89% think that gold will rise this week, 185 people or 7% think that gold will fall this week, 99 people or 4% I think gold will be consolidating.
2. FXTM research analyst Lukman Otunuga said in a report released on Thursday (May 17) that gold has fallen within the $60 range in the past four months and is still "fragile." Otunuga said: "The main reason for the sharp decline in gold may be the expected increase in the Fed's interest rate hike four times this year."
3. Futong Stone International INTL FCStone pointed out in a report released on Thursday (May 17) that gold has fallen to a new low this year and is below the main moving average. Comex June gold futures closed at $1,284 per ounce, the lowest level since December. Fu Sitong International said: "Because of the uncertainty of the situation in North Korea, the precious metals were blocked yesterday, but it is clear that the funds are not willing to stay in the long-term news vacuum for a long time. At the same time, as the moving average turns to bearish, gold technology Continue to deteriorate."
4. Information website Economies.com said in a report released on Thursday (May 17th) that the key price support for gold prices in the early session was close to $1,285.90 per ounce, indicating that the price of gold fell below this level and pushed up the wave. To $1267.00 per ounce. Therefore, we maintain our intraday bearish view, provided that the price of gold needs to stabilize below $1301.20 per ounce, and that random fluctuations are gradually losing positive energy to support the decline.
5. Kay's macro commodity economist Simona Gambarini said in a report released on Thursday (May 17) that the price of gold is currently below the key psychological level of $1,300 per ounce, and the gold bulls must wait until the end of the Fed's tightening cycle. Only then will the price rise sharply.
6. Simona Gambarini said, “The price of gold seems to be well supported around the current level. Therefore, we are satisfied with the forecast of 1,300 US dollars per ounce at the end of 2018. The Fed will raise interest rates again this year, three times, intuitively thinking that this will be the price of gold. Negative, because higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding interest-free assets.†Gambarini added that gold is likely to receive significant support by the end of next year and points out that the Fed is one of the main drivers.
7. The German commercial bank said in an article released on Wednesday that "we believe that the downside potential of gold is limited." The bank said that speculators in the futures market have cut net long positions since the summer, so this form of selling pressure should Will weaken. “At the same time, low price levels should stimulate physical buying interest,†German Commercial Bank continued. “The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (violent protests in the Gaza Strip, uncertainty in the Iranian nuclear deal) show that demand for gold as a safe haven is indeed strong and that the Korean conflict has broken out again.†North Korea cancelled a high-level meeting, A high-level summit with South Korea is still uncertain whether the planned summit between the US and North Korean leaders will be held as scheduled next month.
Focus on Friday
20:30 Canada April CPI monthly rate
Canada March retail sales monthly rate
21:15 Fed Governor Brainard speaks
01:00 Total number of oil wells in the US to the week of May 18
(Editor: Liu Xiaoman HF108)
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