With the recent re-emergence of the political situation in Europe and the United States, the demand for gold safe have been amplified again. The latest trader positions show that hedge funds and speculators have sharply increased their long positions in gold for two consecutive weeks. There has been little change in short positions, while silver short positions have increased significantly.
According to the traders' position data released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last Friday, as of the week of last Tuesday, speculators increased their holdings of 13,959 gold long contracts, and the short contracts barely changed, only 48. In the week, the net long position of gold rose by nearly 14,000 to 131,572, the highest increase in five weeks.
However, from the report of the hedge fund position in the past 10 years of gold, the precious metals analysis agency HebBA Investments believes that there is no overbought or oversold market for gold.
In the short term (within a week), the agency said that last week's US non-agricultural report fell sharply less than expected, boosting gold to the 1300 level. However, from this week's economic events table, no major economic data was released before the Federal Reserve held its interest rate meeting on June 14. Coupled with the recent weakening of demand for gold in the Asian market, it is expected that gold will have a certain correction in the short term.
Hebba Investments also mentioned that on June 8, the former head of the FBI FB I), James Comey, will go to the Senate Intelligence Committee to testify about the political risk. His publicly exposed fabric will be Provide clues about the interaction with President Trump in the past few months. However, the agency also believes that this testimony will not have much impact on the market.
In the medium to long term (within six months), Hebba Investments believes that the gold trend will turn to cattle. The reasons are: global financial market risks remain high, black swan events may still occur; political situation in the euro zone may still be volatile; global trade barriers and protectionism continue to rise; Trump tax reforms may significantly increase the future fiscal deficit of the United States and Dollar debt.
In the long run (higher than six months), Hebba Investments believes that gold will enter the bull market completely. The rationale is: including all medium and long-term risks; a significant proportion of the structural debt problems in this global debt remain unresolved; gold supply will decline further; the dollar fundamentals remain weak in the long run.
In addition, in terms of silver, CFTC position data showed that as of the week of last Tuesday, silver speculative net long positions increased by about 12,000 to 42,000 contracts.
Hebba Investments pointed out that silver's net long position continued to fall sharply in early May after hitting a record high. The rebound in the past three weeks has been mainly driven by short covering. From the position data, there is no substantial growth in the multiple positions of silver, which means that the market lacks more momentum.
The decline in silver industry demand and silver coin consumption is also not conducive to silver fundamentals.
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