The trade war and the political situation in the Middle East suddenly cooled down. Trump said that reconsidering the TPP, the North American Free Trade Agreement is close to being reached, tariffs on China may not be implemented, and the blow to Syria is not imminent. The gold and silver suddenly suffered a head-on, the oil price barely rose, and the foreign exchange market was not peaceful.
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· Gold futures closed down 1.42% on Thursday (April 12) at $1337.5 per ounce; silver futures closed down 1.35% at $16.44 per ounce. Trump issued relatively friendly remarks about the situation in Syria, Sino-US trade disputes, NAFTA negotiations, and re-joining the TPP. Profit-taking and renewed risk sentiment led to continued decline in gold. Trump said that he never said when to attack Syria, and it may soon be possible. The source told CNBC that the United States is considering cracking down on eight potential targets for Syria. According to NBC, US officials obtained a positive test for blood and urine samples from Syria. Trump also said on Thursday that he has instructed the White House chief economic adviser Kudlow and US trade representative Wright Heze to explore the possibility of rejoining the TPP. He said that the United States and China may not impose new tariffs on the other party in the end, and stressed that it is very close to reaching the North American Free Trade Agreement, which takes weeks or months.
· US oil futures closed up 0.63% to US$67.16/barrel; oil futures closed up 0.35% at US$72.2/barrel. The situation in Syria has eased, and crude oil bulls’ confidence has been frustrated. However, OPEC’s latest monthly report predicts that the oil market will tighten in the year and support oil prices to continue to rise. The OPEC monthly report showed that OPEC's March production fell to 31.158 million barrels per day, the lowest since March 2017. OPEC's production cuts in March exceeded 150%, and non-OPEC countries exceeded 120%. In addition, OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 1.63 million barrels per day in 2018, higher than the previous forecast of 1.6 million barrels per day. However, the monthly report pointed out that non-OPEC production is expected to grow at a faster rate.
· The US dollar index closed up 0.28% to 89.76, mainly boosted by the minutes of the Fed's March meeting; the safe-haven and slow-down yen was sold, USD/JPY closed up 0.47% to 107.28; EUR/USD closed down 0.33%, 1.2325, the minutes of the ECB meeting showed that policymakers were worried about trade wars and the strength of the euro; GBP/USD closed up 0.35% at 1.4226. The Hong Kong dollar hit the weak exchange guarantee on Thursday, the lowest in 33 years. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought the local currency for the first time in 13 years. Digital currencies soared, and bitcoin rose more than 11%.
Precious metals: Trump suddenly turned sharply on four key issues.
US President Trump uncharacteristically on Thursday (April 12), on the Syrian situation, Sino-US trade disputes, the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) negotiations and re-joining the TPP to issue relatively friendly remarks, the market's tight nerves relaxed, US stocks The short-term acceleration accelerated, the dollar rebounded, the gold price ended for four consecutive days, and spot gold broke the $1,335 mark. Kitco analysts pointed out that profit-taking and renewed risk sentiment led to continued decline in gold. At the close, the COMEX gold futures contract fell 1.42% to $1337.5 per ounce; the silver futures contract fell 1.35% to $16.44 per ounce.
Syria’s geopolitical concerns were alleviated on Thursday, and Trump said in his latest tweet that he never said when to attack Syria, which may soon or later. A day before, Trump also sent a tweet to "prepare" Russia and its allies. Affected by this, market risk appetite rebounded, US stocks rose sharply, and gold prices fell.
However, a source told CNBC that the United States is considering cracking eight potential targets, including two Syrian airports, a research center and a chemical weapons facility. According to NBC, US officials obtained a positive test for blood and urine samples from Syria. After the announcement of these two news, the US stock market narrowed.
In addition to the smoke bombs on the Syrian issue, Trump suddenly made a sharp turn on three key issues. Trump said on Thursday that he has instructed the White House chief economic adviser Kudlow and US trade representative Wright Heze to explore the possibility of rejoining the TPP. The analysis said that Trump’s statement was interesting when the US-China trade dispute still existed. CNBC pointed out that Trump may want to use the TPP to unite as an ally, and also take the opportunity to find a new export market for US agricultural products.
Trump also said on Thursday that the United States and China may not impose new tariffs on the other party. According to Bloomberg, Trump said that President Xi Jinping’s speech on tariffs has brought about the possibility that the United States and China will not impose tariffs on each other and may even lower tariffs. If China is willing to open its market to more American products, the United States may avoid trade wars. He said: "I will not call it a trade war because it is actually a trade negotiation." Bloomberg believes that this strengthens the Trump administration's reconciliation trade dispute signal released this week. Trump also stressed that it is close to reaching the North American Free Trade Agreement, which can take weeks or months.
In addition, the Federal Reserve’s March meeting minutes released the hawkish signal, boosting the dollar’s ​​rebound and also suppressing the price of gold. The initial data released overnight also helped the dollar rebound. The number of jobless claims in the United States to the beginning of the week was slightly down on April 7th, recording 233,000, indicating that the labor market has remained tight despite the significant reduction in new jobs in March. Reuters commented that the job market is close to full employment and is expected to reach the Fed's 3.8% unemployment rate target during the year.
Crude oil: OPEC monthly report added good oil prices to maintain rising but volatility climbed to a two-month high
The situation in Syria eased on Thursday, which caused the confidence of crude oil bulls to be frustrated. At the same time, the rebound of the US dollar also put pressure on oil prices. However, OPEC predicted in the latest monthly report that the oil market situation will be tightened during the year, supporting oil prices to continue to rise. NYMEX US WTI crude oil futures contract closed up 0.63% to 67.16 US dollars / barrel, maintained at a high level for more than three years, ICE Brent crude oil futures contract closed up 0.35%, to 72.2 US dollars / barrel.
On Thursday, OPEC announced a monthly report that OPEC's March production fell to 31.158 million barrels per day, the lowest since March 2017. OPEC's production cuts in March exceeded 150%, and non-OPEC countries exceeded 120%. In addition, OPEC expects global oil demand to grow by 1.63 million barrels per day in 2018, higher than the previous forecast of 1.6 million barrels per day. However, the monthly report pointed out that non-OPEC production is expected to grow at a faster rate.
On the other hand, news from the US on the day showed that the military strike was not the only option to deal with the Syrian crisis. This caused the market to worry about the situation in Syria, and the confidence of the crude oil bulls was frustrated.
Bloomberg said that this week's CBOE index to measure the volatility of Nymex WTI crude oil has risen to a two-month high. At the same time, the WTI call skew, which measures the gap between long-term and short-selling willingness of crude oil investors, rose to its highest level since June 30, 2014. This shows that with the rapid rise of geopolitical risks, crude oil has become the target of investors crazy.
Energy analyst Richard Mallinson said that the Syrian issue is not the only reason for the recent surge in oil prices, and Iran is expected to take the lead. It is widely expected that Trump will withdraw from the Iranian nuclear agreement on May 12. However, U.S. Treasury Secretary Nuchin said on Wednesday that if President Trump decides not to extend the sanctions exemption against Iran on May 12, it does not necessarily mean that the United States will withdraw from the Iranian nuclear agreement in 2015. It is not clear what Nuchin’s remarks mean, but this seems to imply that the Trump administration believes that even if Trump chooses not to extend the immigration sanctions against Iran, the agreement will not necessarily collapse.
Forex: Euro Yen bulls are stifling Hong Kong dollar bitcoin to "take the headlines"
The US dollar index rose 0.28% on Thursday to 89.76, hitting a high of 89.97, further approaching the 90 mark, mainly boosted by the previously announced minutes of the Fed's March meeting. As the market risk aversion cooled, the dollar against the yen closed up 0.47% to 107.28.
The euro closed down 0.33% against the dollar at 1.2325. The minutes of the March monetary policy meeting announced by the European Central Bank on Thursday hit the euro long. The minutes show that ECB policymakers are worried about trade wars and the strength of the euro. Policymakers say that the euro's strength in recent months is an "important source of uncertainty." Some policymakers expect this to have a more negative impact on inflation. Investors speculated that the US-China trade war will lead to the failure of the European Central Bank to withdraw the ultra-loose monetary policy.
GBP/USD closed up 0.35% on Thursday, at 1.4226. Reuters said that the pound traders are preparing for a wave of heavy data on UK unemployment, wages and inflation data to be released next week. These figures may support expectations of the Bank of England's rate hike in May.
The Hong Kong dollar fell to 7.85 on Thursday, hitting the weak exchange guarantee, the lowest in 33 years, forcing the Hong Kong Monetary Authority to buy the local currency for the first time in 13 years. On April 12, the HKMA bought HK$ 816 million to maintain the linked exchange rate system. In the early morning of the 13th Beijing time, according to Reuters, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HK$2.442 billion in the market because the Hong Kong dollar exchange rate touched the weak exchange guarantee. The HKMA bought a total of more than HK$3.2 billion twice.
On Thursday, digital currencies rose collectively, and bitcoin rose more than 11%, once rising above the $8,000 mark. According to CNBC analysis, Bitcoin has been experiencing selling pressures associated with it as the US tax day approached on April 17. Some traders said that the increase in bitcoin prices during the day may be due to tax-related pressures.
(Editor: Fang Fengjiao HF055)
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