The spring cotton sowing of domestic cotton has been successively ended this month. Most of the cotton producing areas have entered the seedling stage. Spring cotton is planted in the Xinjiang cotton area from the end of March to the beginning of April. The planting work is completed before the end of April, and the emergence of cotton in the early stage is good. Both the Yellow River and the Yangtze River basin were affected by the rainfall in April. The start of sowing time was slightly delayed. The Yellow River Basin Cotton Region has now completed its spring planting work, and the transplanting of cotton plants in the Yangtze River Valley is gradually drawing to a close.
According to the survey results, the actual cotton planting area in the current year was about 41.5 million mu, of which the Xinjiang region was protected by the target price policy and the cotton planting area was about 27.5 million mu, which was a decrease of 4.21% year-on-year and accounted for 66.4% of the country. Since the domestic cotton prices began to rise sharply in mid-April, among which the increase in Xinjiang cotton was particularly noticeable, and the risk of replanting other crops in Xinjiang was higher, some cotton farmers who had intended to change their crops continued to grow cotton, but the income of cotton farmers in the mainland cotton regions was insufficient. The actual planting area of ​​cotton is basically the same as the estimated value in April, and the area shrinks significantly.
It is understood that after the cotton sowing in the current year, the main cotton production area has become the main influencing factor for climate change, and the early growth status of cotton has been clearly differentiated. Among them, continuous rains and dusty weather in Xinjiang frequently occur from the end of April to mid-May, and the mean temperature of Xinjiang is low. In early May, northern Xinjiang’s Tianshan Mountains were affected by persistent rainy weather and the temperature was low. Part of the planting of late cotton seedlings was affected by low temperature and there was no harvest phenomenon. 10%-20% of the cotton fields experienced rebroadcasting, and the temperature gradually warmed up after mid-May. The growth of seedlings is stable, but the output will still be affected.
Some areas in southern Xinjiang suffered severe wind and dust disasters. Some areas suffered severe damage, but the area affected by the disaster was limited. From mid-May onwards, temperatures in southern Xinjiang began to be stable, with cotton plants growing to 3-5 true leaves, and the overall growth was good. The climate of the inland cotton regions also shows a north-south differentiation. The droughts in the individual provinces of northern China have an impact on the seeding process in the early stage. The rainfall in the Yangtze River Basin is relatively high and the overall transplant schedule is also affected. Due to the unpredictable temperature changes and the overall impact of precipitation, poor land conditions have adversely affected spring planting. The sown area has also been significantly reduced compared to last year. At present, the earlier sown cotton fields have grown 3-4 true leaves.
This year, China's cotton planting area continues to decline. If adverse weather occurs late, cotton production will be difficult to guarantee. The author believes that the current situation of insufficient supply of high-quality cotton in the market will continue. It is expected that the cotton price in the initial stage of the new-year cotton market will be higher or higher than 2015/16. year. The rise in cotton prices in the new year will have a significant impact on prices of inland seed cotton, while Xinjiang is protected by targeted price subsidies. The income of cotton farmers is mainly linked to output.
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